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Author: Subject: how bad is it? (cv19)
steve m

posted on 19/3/20 at 06:43 PM Reply With Quote
Im with You David on all of this, I don't think ive ever had flu, nor has an awful lot of people, just a bad cold, but I do regularly
have chest infection, etc as I am asthmatic, and as I posted in my first post
"But as im nearly 60, an asthmatic, on various pumps, and steroids, also, have flu jabs every year, had Pneumonia jab in 2017
had Pneumonia and pleurisy in 2012, I have been advised to "self distance" myself As the Doctors called me yesterday "

Ive told my wife, that if I was to get anything near what I had in 2012 "Pneumonia and pleurisy" she is to close the door and go and live at my daughters, and I will die, as that is what I wanted to do in 2012,

It was seriously that bad, !!!

Just to add, I do not want to die, hence us self distancing our selves, and living in a semi isolated world

Its a bit like a mission to Mars, it will take a long time, we have a supply ship come once a week (Tescos )
and I do hope they don't run out of oxygen FOR when we do land, ON MARS !

STEVE





Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at




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SJ

posted on 19/3/20 at 06:55 PM Reply With Quote
Getting a test to check if people have had it, and understanding if they can still be infectious afterwards (hopefully not) will really help. Hope this comes soon.
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perksy

posted on 19/3/20 at 09:21 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by coyoteboy
quote:
Originally posted by perksy

I really don't think the press/papers are helping and some folks are acting as though its the end of the world, It isn't...

Worth remembering that between 8000 & 10,000 people die just about every year due to the Flu



Easy for people to say without significant underlying conditions, not in the prime risk category, to say. Attitudes like this are why my next door neighbour is still walking about happily, spitting on the floor, going to the shops and handling all the stuff I have to touch and saying "yeah I had the symptoms but it's nothing more than the flu - people will get over it". Other people's blase attitude add to why I have lock myself away and take extra precautions - it's at times like this that you see people only think of themselves.

Remember:

1) Flu has a vaccine and still kills 20K people a year in the UK. This has no vaccine and a ~10x higher death rate in those it does infect.
2) In the general population the death rate is ~2-3% ish. In the at risk categories it's 20%. Would you like to be staring 20% in the face? Remember it's not all older folks in that category, it's plenty of people for who day to day avoidance of illness was *already* a real effort.

The number of specialists who have come out and said "if you think this is just the flu, you're sadly mistaken". I don't think any NHS staff member should be taking the line you have, given the NHS and WHO opinions, though I note you're not medically qualified.

[Edited on 19/3/20 by coyoteboy]







We all get an opinion and a view, that's the advantage of living in a democracy, I do feel sorry for anyone with underlying health conditions and hope they stay safe, We have friends and family who are staying inside

I listened to a doctor last night saying that he'd actually been treating this since November last year, He may be wrong but he's medically trained and as you say I'm not

Personally I don't think the forecast figures will be accurate and they did change for the better this week, We shall see...

I'm working with staff now with underlying health conditions who will have to work in potential Covid areas, but like myself they know that we have to keep the Hospital going and look after the patients as that's what we signed up for (we'll wear the PPE and we'll get it done)

If anybody thinks its only Medically trained staff that keep the NHS operating you couldn't be any further from the truth...

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ianclark1275

posted on 19/3/20 at 11:53 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by bart
I'm now going to RANT about ventilator beds
and not about the lack but what they are trying to do.

in my work life I design products and project manage , and I am astounded at the lack of thought going into the "build more Ventilator's "

what is needed is a
what's the simplest quickest to build ventilator beds we can get away with approach
if we sat down the people who really know down , I'd lay what's left of my pension pot ! that we don't need the sophistication
and bells and whistle's and flashing lights that we see on modern ventilator beds that they are trying to make.
I don't know all the details but if the 1950-70's ventilator's work good enough to keep the vast majority alive
and they where just electro mechanical then that's what we make
find one - strip it down draw up the plans -with enough engineers 48 hrs tops
distribute the plans to subcontract engineering company's
4-5 days later parts start to arrive
assemble them where ever ! test to a specification
bingo in 2 weeks we have the first 100 beds then ramp up within 3 to 4 weeks 2000 a week easy

I tried to help and register but was told because I had never been involved with a CE approved ventilator I would not be needed

you don't need CE approval to stop people dying. this is a simple managed design and manufacture task , i'm lost for words

re " not enough staff "
again staff don't need 2 years training , for example in a ward of say 50 beds a couple of fully trained per shift - then inverted pyramid down structure to Intelligent bed watchers at each bed or two . if necessary pulled from say teachers ect

I know i'm going to get some real flack for this comment , but for %--% sake someone just needs to get a managed grip of the whole thing.
be that government or "industry"
Rant over !



See info below, someone is already on it by looks of it

I’d bet there is a 3D printer at every secondary school also !!

The valve stuff looks a bit difficult and to go with it you need top spec blood oxygen monitoring equipment.

Low Resource Bag Valve Mask (BVM) Ventilator

This project was jumpstarted by the COVID-19 global pandemic as a result of community discussion on a facebook group called Open Source COVID19 and OpenSourceVentilator, this is why I created a GitLab project for a new open source product called OpenLung.
More specifically in a discussion

https://gitlab.com/TrevorSmale/OSV-OpenLung





measure twice, cut once, scrap it, start again.

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russbost

posted on 20/3/20 at 10:28 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by bart
I'm now going to RANT about ventilator beds
and not about the lack but what they are trying to do.

in my work life I design products and project manage , and I am astounded at the lack of thought going into the "build more Ventilator's "

what is needed is a
what's the simplest quickest to build ventilator beds we can get away with approach
if we sat down the people who really know down , I'd lay what's left of my pension pot ! that we don't need the sophistication
and bells and whistle's and flashing lights that we see on modern ventilator beds that they are trying to make.
I don't know all the details but if the 1950-70's ventilator's work good enough to keep the vast majority alive
and they where just electro mechanical then that's what we make
find one - strip it down draw up the plans -with enough engineers 48 hrs tops
distribute the plans to subcontract engineering company's
4-5 days later parts start to arrive
assemble them where ever ! test to a specification
bingo in 2 weeks we have the first 100 beds then ramp up within 3 to 4 weeks 2000 a week easy

I tried to help and register but was told because I had never been involved with a CE approved ventilator I would not be needed

you don't need CE approval to stop people dying. this is a simple managed design and manufacture task , i'm lost for words

re " not enough staff "
again staff don't need 2 years training , for example in a ward of say 50 beds a couple of fully trained per shift - then inverted pyramid down structure to Intelligent bed watchers at each bed or two . if necessary pulled from say teachers ect

I know i'm going to get some real flack for this comment , but for %--% sake someone just needs to get a managed grip of the whole thing.
be that government or "industry"
Rant over !


I know next to nothing about ventilators, but I'd be prepared to bet my life that a not very good one is a LOT better than none at all!

Unfortunately we live in a world ruled by this ridiculous sue me/sue you culture - see the comments about patents etc. -I sometimes feel the world is ruled by lawyers rather than politicians (when we all know it's run by big business really), or is it the HSE?

One can only hope that common sense prevails & someone steps up to the plate & gets the job done - of course if it fails at a crucial moment then the victims family will all want to sue .....

Rather glad I'm not living in Italy at present!





Furore Formula Car - the only two seater modern Formula Car lookalike. I no longer run Furore Products or Furore Cars Ltd, but would still highly recommend them for Acewell dashes, projector headlights, dominator headlights, indicators, mirrors etc, best prices in the UK! Take a look at http://www.furoreproducts.co.uk/ or find more parts on Ebay, user names furoreltd & furoreproducts, discounts available for LCB users.
Don't forget Stainless Steel Braided brake hoses, made to your exact requirements in any of around 16 colours. http://shop.ebay.co.uk/furoreproducts/m.html?_dmd=1&_ipg=50&_sop=12&_rdc=1

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bart

posted on 20/3/20 at 10:48 AM Reply With Quote
russbost

russbost

you will be living in Italy in 2-3 weeks maximum !!!

Re HSE comment - been there done that T shirt
HSE no longer set the rules - you write your own rules , risk arsments ( no not spelt wrong !)

then when things go wrong through individual stupidity , they prosecute you for either not doing a risk arsment
for the simplest of tasks . that's how the HSE work now , every thing in retrospect , so they can never be wrong .





BE ALERT > BRITAIN NEEDS LERTS

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steve m

posted on 20/3/20 at 12:31 PM Reply With Quote
If someone is in need of ventilator or a Defib, they are already in a very bad way, and critically ill,
So if we say that no one is put on these machines and people die, will the families sue because the Medical teams did not
do enough to save there loved ones ?

This is a very nasty world we live in, do nothing and get sued, do everything possible, and patient dies, sue

steve





Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at




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HowardB

posted on 20/3/20 at 02:29 PM Reply With Quote
this was a blast of ice cold reality

sky_news

apologies if you have already seen it,.





Howard

Fisher Fury was 2000 Zetec - now a 1600 (it Lives again and goes zoom)

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David Jenkins

posted on 20/3/20 at 03:33 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by HowardB
this was a blast of ice cold reality

sky_news

apologies if you have already seen it,.


Chilling & scary...





The older I get, the better I was...

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02GF74

posted on 20/3/20 at 05:59 PM Reply With Quote
Let's face it, but...

doomed
doomed







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David Jenkins

posted on 21/3/20 at 07:04 PM Reply With Quote
Went to Sainsburys early this morning - hardly any customers there, and only a few shelves were empty. I guess that the panic buyers no longer have enough cupboard space to buy more stuff...

...and, before anyone says it, we only bought a basket's-worth of stuff we actually need in the coming few days.

[Edited on 21/3/20 by David Jenkins]





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02GF74

posted on 21/3/20 at 07:22 PM Reply With Quote
That's very noble but in this world it is everyone for himself.

Nobody needs a tank like SUV but people buy them so when they are in an accident, they are not crumpled but the other people. .

Doing one big shop reduces the number of trips to the shops and thus exposure.

You cannot blame people for wanting to look after themselves or their families.

I'm not saying it is right or wrong but we live in difficult times.






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SJ

posted on 21/3/20 at 07:32 PM Reply With Quote
quote:

That's very noble but in this world it is everyone for himself.

Nobody needs a tank like SUV but people buy them so when they are in an accident, they are not crumpled but the other people. .

Doing one big shop reduces the number of trips to the shops and thus exposure.

You cannot blame people for wanting to look after themselves or their families.

I'm not saying it is right or wrong but we live in difficult times.



Absolutely agree. Whatever the supermarkets and government say this is a supply issue with food as well as increased demand. Can't blame people for ensuring they can feed their kids.

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russbost

posted on 21/3/20 at 07:33 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by 02GF74
That's very noble but in this world it is everyone for himself.

Nobody needs a tank like SUV but people buy them so when they are in an accident, they are not crumpled but the other people. .

Doing one big shop reduces the number of trips to the shops and thus exposure.

You cannot blame people for wanting to look after themselves or their families.

I'm not saying it is right or wrong but we live in difficult times.


There's a huge difference between a normal "big shop" & the sort of panic buying & hoarding we've seen recently. Taking more than you reasonably need when there are people out there with immune system deficiencies etc who genuinely NEED to use hand gel etc regularly is tantamount to gbh, potentially manslaughter.
So far as I'm concerned anyone panic buying & hoarding are utter scum. I guess everyone is entitled to their own opinion.





Furore Formula Car - the only two seater modern Formula Car lookalike. I no longer run Furore Products or Furore Cars Ltd, but would still highly recommend them for Acewell dashes, projector headlights, dominator headlights, indicators, mirrors etc, best prices in the UK! Take a look at http://www.furoreproducts.co.uk/ or find more parts on Ebay, user names furoreltd & furoreproducts, discounts available for LCB users.
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MikeR

posted on 21/3/20 at 07:34 PM Reply With Quote
Reference a post above we're tracking 2 weeks behind Italy - almost exactly. The numbers are so close it's scary.

Hold onto your loved one (at a safe distance) it's going to get bumpy

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SJ

posted on 21/3/20 at 07:56 PM Reply With Quote
quote:

There's a huge difference between a normal "big shop" & the sort of panic buying & hoarding we've seen recently. Taking more than you reasonably need when there are people out there with immune system deficiencies etc who genuinely NEED to use hand gel etc regularly is tantamount to gbh, potentially manslaughter.
So far as I'm concerned anyone panic buying & hoarding are utter scum. I guess everyone is entitled to their own opinion.



Who's doing that though? I've only seen people like me, trying to buy what they normally buy and failing. I was at Asda at 545 on Friday morning because going at normal times means you come home empty handed.

Didn't see anyone buying in bulk. In fact that would be impossible now anyway but despite that shelves are empty.

I think maybe we need ration cards ASAP as food is very obviously in short supply. I hope that is just the supply chain catching up but fear it isn't.

Stu

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big_wasa

posted on 21/3/20 at 08:15 PM Reply With Quote
The likes of my out laws.

Up since 4am this morning and have done around ten or twelve shops across the county in the last couple of days.
They have two freezers bulging at the seems.

Why, they will not stay home for any one or any thing.

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MikeR

posted on 21/3/20 at 08:57 PM Reply With Quote
The supply chain has food etc. It's people buying silly amounts. The shops are doing Christmas trade every day.

I think round here the panic buying has stopped

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SJ

posted on 21/3/20 at 09:22 PM Reply With Quote
quote:

The supply chain has food etc. It's people buying silly amounts. The shops are doing Christmas trade every day.

I think round here the panic buying has stopped



Let's hope so.

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Benzine

posted on 21/3/20 at 10:40 PM Reply With Quote
I've seen some folk at the checkouts trying to buy 2 packs of 9no bog rolls and been denied at checkout, followed by protest/sigh/rolled eyes. Every time I've seen it the person trying to buy looks like their family tree is a stump.

One bog roll will last me well over a week! 1 up, 1 down and 1 to polish off

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ReMan

posted on 21/3/20 at 10:51 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by MikeR
The supply chain has food etc. It's people buying silly amounts. The shops are doing Christmas trade every day.

I think round here the panic buying has stopped

Not yet it hasnt.







www.plusnine.co.uk
∙،°. ˘Ô≈ôﺣ

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Benzine

posted on 21/3/20 at 10:52 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by ReMan

I think round here the panic buying has stopped

Not yet it hasnt.




Certainly hasn't round here either

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scimjim

posted on 21/3/20 at 11:13 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by bart
I'm now going to RANT about ventilator beds
and not about the lack but what they are trying to do.

in my work life I design products and project manage , and I am astounded at the lack of thought going into the "build more Ventilator's "

what is needed is a
what's the simplest quickest to build ventilator beds we can get away with approach
if we sat down the people who really know down , I'd lay what's left of my pension pot ! that we don't need the sophistication
and bells and whistle's and flashing lights that we see on modern ventilator beds that they are trying to make.
I don't know all the details but if the 1950-70's ventilator's work good enough to keep the vast majority alive
and they where just electro mechanical then that's what we make
find one - strip it down draw up the plans -with enough engineers 48 hrs tops
distribute the plans to subcontract engineering company's
4-5 days later parts start to arrive
assemble them where ever ! test to a specification
bingo in 2 weeks we have the first 100 beds then ramp up within 3 to 4 weeks 2000 a week easy

I tried to help and register but was told because I had never been involved with a CE approved ventilator I would not be needed

you don't need CE approval to stop people dying. this is a simple managed design and manufacture task , i'm lost for words

re " not enough staff "
again staff don't need 2 years training , for example in a ward of say 50 beds a couple of fully trained per shift - then inverted pyramid down structure to Intelligent bed watchers at each bed or two . if necessary pulled from say teachers ect

I know i'm going to get some real flack for this comment , but for %--% sake someone just needs to get a managed grip of the whole thing.
be that government or "industry"
Rant over !

Over the past couple of days there have been appeals on several military sites I’m on, for ex military ”med and dent techs” to help build and maintain the ventilators that a consortium of aerospace companies are manufacturing to an old design (because it’s simpler, quicker and cheaper to make) as they’re already trained and experienced with the design, along with some still serving old and bold/bald. Similarly, recently retired NHS staff are being taken back on temporary contracts and the framework for taking over every private hospital bed and staff has been signed in record time.

So funnily enough, there is a managed grip of the whole thing - mainly under pre-planned frameworks that just needs tweaking for specific requirements.

Don’t believe everything you see on TV

[Edited on 21/3/20 by scimjim]

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JC

posted on 22/3/20 at 06:14 AM Reply With Quote
I also read that Smiths had made one of its designs freely available so that anyone worldwide can produce it.
Hopefully if people take the social distancing seriously, unlike the muppets on the south coast and in Skegness yesterday, or the folk queuing to get in shops, we might but enough time for these ventilators to hit the hospitals.

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russbost

posted on 22/3/20 at 08:14 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by SJ
quote:

There's a huge difference between a normal "big shop" & the sort of panic buying & hoarding we've seen recently. Taking more than you reasonably need when there are people out there with immune system deficiencies etc who genuinely NEED to use hand gel etc regularly is tantamount to gbh, potentially manslaughter.
So far as I'm concerned anyone panic buying & hoarding are utter scum. I guess everyone is entitled to their own opinion.



Who's doing that though? I've only seen people like me, trying to buy what they normally buy and failing. I was at Asda at 545 on Friday morning because going at normal times means you come home empty handed.

Didn't see anyone buying in bulk. In fact that would be impossible now anyway but despite that shelves are empty.

I think maybe we need ration cards ASAP as food is very obviously in short supply. I hope that is just the supply chain catching up but fear it isn't.

Stu


How can you have missed all the pics/video of people trying to push overloaded trolleys with literally dozens if not 100's of bog rolls etc??? After bog roll & hand sanitizer came the pasta, rice & frozen meals! I can only assume people had absolutely nothing in their fridges, freezers & cupboards b4 all this started. There's even been a panic buy of freezers FFS - you'd think people were planning for a few months siege rather than a couple of weeks isolation
Still plenty of people panic buying now, there are queues at all the major supermarkets round here b4 they're even open, hence why when normal people get there following their normal routine half the shelves are empty. My Mrs. hasn't generally changed her shopping habits & we've been able to buy most of what we normally would, but it has involved a couple of extra trips out at different times of day to pick up some bits we couldn't get & sometimes buying premium brands rather than what we'd normally get

If everyone stopped the panic queueing/buying then supply chain would very quickly return to normal - it's a shame the Covid 19 virus doesn't target the "I'm as thick as poo & as selfish as Scrooge" brigade!





Furore Formula Car - the only two seater modern Formula Car lookalike. I no longer run Furore Products or Furore Cars Ltd, but would still highly recommend them for Acewell dashes, projector headlights, dominator headlights, indicators, mirrors etc, best prices in the UK! Take a look at http://www.furoreproducts.co.uk/ or find more parts on Ebay, user names furoreltd & furoreproducts, discounts available for LCB users.
Don't forget Stainless Steel Braided brake hoses, made to your exact requirements in any of around 16 colours. http://shop.ebay.co.uk/furoreproducts/m.html?_dmd=1&_ipg=50&_sop=12&_rdc=1

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