carpmart
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 08:20 AM |
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Whats your view on.......
......the housing market?
- Values in free fall or a minor blip
- Is the fall in value being over hyped by the media or an accurate reflection of the current situation?
- Are estate agents their own worst enemies by saying to each vendor, if you don't drop your price it won't sell type of line? Could they
be largely responsible for the drop in prices.
I'm just interested in peoples opinions. 
You only live once - make the most of it!
Radical Clubsport, Kwaker motor
'94 MX5 MK1, 1.8
F10 M5 - 600bhp Daily Hack 
Range Rover Sport - Wife's Car
Mercedes A class - Son's Car
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Mr Whippy
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 08:24 AM |
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in my area the prices are continuing to go up very nicely, they are already very high and will be very very high next year
round about every 3 months someone knocks on the door and asks if my house is for sale...not yet
[Edited on 2/7/08 by Mr Whippy]
Fame is when your old car is plastered all over the internet
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DRC INDY 7
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 08:26 AM |
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It all depends where you live they are stable down our way
https://www.facebook.com/groups/462610273778799/
Puddle Dodgers Club
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jabs
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 08:27 AM |
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I don't feel sorry for estate agents when house prices drop. Just think over the past few years house prices have more than doubled and as
estate agents charge a percentage rather than a fix fee their income doubled as well. Wish my salary was linked to house prices.
Same with house builders, does it cost them twice as much to build a house, doubt it so their profits have greatly increased as well.
I think estate agents would always pressure the client to drop prices just to move properties as a house unsold is not generating them any income.
All the above is IMHO
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02GF74
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 08:39 AM |
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we're doomed!!!
you know what they say, what goes up must come down. well in recent years house prices has been going up stupid amounts, the bubble has burst so now
they are slowing down and probably will continue for the rest of this year at least.
with the cost of food, fuel and speding money one hasn;t got (credit cunch), peoples spending power has decreased.
did I mention we're doomed!!!?
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carpmart
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 08:42 AM |
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Ah, got it now, realise why you have the Dad's army pic; Frazer used to say to Captain Mainwairing, 'were all doomed'
They don't make TV like that anymore (thank god!)
You only live once - make the most of it!
Radical Clubsport, Kwaker motor
'94 MX5 MK1, 1.8
F10 M5 - 600bhp Daily Hack
Range Rover Sport - Wife's Car
Mercedes A class - Son's Car
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Dangle_kt
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 08:45 AM |
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its not down to estate agents, there are bigger things at play than that, namely people are being priced out of the market.
My wife and I both have very well paid jobs for our ages, bot senor management, but our combined income is still only enough for an average smallish
house in a reasonable area if you follow the proper 3.5X your salary. A lot of peope have lied or borrowed far more than they can afford. Now mortgage
companies are getting more strict with the money lending situation across the world - it means people can't get the stupid mortgages they could
a year or two ago - these mean less firs time buyers, and without them the whole system starts to slow.
We are in the process of getting our house ready to sell, and we consolidated some credit card debts onto the house - despite spending near £10k in
getting the house looking great, I am confident that we won't see any further return on the £10k and therefore will be carrying the consolidated
debts to the next house.
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Mr Whippy
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 08:56 AM |
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I often wander round the new housing estates popping up all round me being generally nosey and getting ideas for finishing mine (plus walking the
dogs), going by the cars parked outside I’d say they were not strapped for cash, wish I could afford such motors.
Fame is when your old car is plastered all over the internet
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Paul TigerB6
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 08:59 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by 02GF74
you know what they say, what goes up must come down. well in recent years house prices has been going up stupid amounts, the bubble has burst so now
they are slowing down and probably will continue for the rest of this year at least.
Totally agree - house prices have gone up way to high and first time buyers have little chance these days. The way things were going there was always
going to come a point where the bubble would burst. Personally i'm not too upset at this price drop (but then i dont own a house so i wouldnt
be!! ) as it will give me a better chance in the future (plus private rental prices might be kept a little lower).
House builders these days are really struggling. My brother-in-law is a site supervisor for Redrow and they are laying off loads of staff so he may be
out of a job shortly 
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Delinquent
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 09:04 AM |
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The problem is the banks, pure and simple. They lost trust in each other, cost of funds spiralled.
They have effectively now broken away from the Bank of England base rate and are on their own crusade. If they don't start lending (at
reasonable rates) soon, then we could be in serious trouble, with long term plummeting prices.
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ned
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 09:07 AM |
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In my opinion/locality I think the prices will drop further as the markets adjust - it will be more than just a blip to answer the original question
of the thread.
The main issue is not surrounding the actual house prices imho, it's down to the lenders. A colleague of mine put his flat up for sale at the
average market price, same as several others nearby. He didn't get any interest (no viewings at all) so dropped it £15k to undercut all similar
flats in the area as he'd found somewhere he wanted to buy so wanted to get rid. He still hasn't had a single viewing (now several weeks
on) and according to the estate agents it's not the price, as that is relatively a bargain for the area. The problem lies with the lenders
tightneting their purse strings and not giving out as many mortgages and requiring bigger deposits or lending on lower salary multipliers to reduce
their credit risk as the lending rate between banks is a lot higher due to teh credit crunch bad losses stemming from the US. This is all in turn
hitting first time buyers at the bottom of the market the hardest and is having a knock on effect through the market. Those who are already on the
ladder generally have some equity in their properties so have better chances of meeting the minimum deposit/loan to value criteria for new/rmortgages
but if there's no one at the bottom of the chain no one can move up.
It'll prob take a couple of years to sort itself out as with inflation ie fuel, energy and food going up they won't drop interest rates
any further (not that banks are passing on the lowe rates to customers anyways on mortgages) and I personally think rates are now likely to go up
before they come down. It's a time of uncertainty so everyone is holding fire to see what happens which again in turns elongates the recovery
time of the market as nothing is getting shifted in the property market.
Anyway, I'll stop now or my post will be so long no one will bother reading it lol!
Ned.
ps or to abreviate, see Delinquents thread above!
[Edited on 2/7/08 by ned]
beware, I've got yellow skin
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eznfrank
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 09:08 AM |
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I'm a little bemused by people who own "homes" really caring so much about the housing prices. If you own your own home worth
£250,000 or £100,000 it's your home so who cares what it's worth. And if you decide to move then in theory any property you look at will
likely have gone through the same rise/fall so it's all relative. I reckon as daft as it sounds that a major contributor to the whole panic are
these TV shows that have people seeing their homes as a cash cow rather than a place to live. The psychology of negative equity is also an odd one,
eg you bought a house you felt was worth say £100K and pay x amount a month, but then the value of your property goes down to say £75k, but you still
pay x a month which is what you thought it was worth anyway?????
First time buyers on the other hand I do feel sorry for, I bought at 18 totally against the will of my parents but it was the best thing I ever did!
That's my perhaps rather simplistic 2p worth anyways.
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ned
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 09:14 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by eznfrank
I'm a little bemused by people who own "homes" really caring so much about the housing prices.
From my perspective, as house prices drop quickly the loan to value ratio slides and come mortgage renewal time I won't be able to get such a
good rate so it will end up costing me more (potentially several hundred £/month) as no one will lend to me so I'll be stuck on a higher rate
for the forseable future. Anyone who's bought in the last couple of years on a low deposit or high loan value will be prey to this happening
especially as low fixed rate mortgages finish their 2 or 3 year terms etc etc.
I do appreciate your point that if you're not looking to move negative equity in that respect doesn't matter as you just ride it out but
the remortgage side of things can still cause living costs to increase..
Ned.
[Edited on 2/7/08 by ned]
beware, I've got yellow skin
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oldtimer
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 09:15 AM |
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Due to the low volume of property sales it can be quite difficult to guage what is happening as these few sales have a disproportionate effect on
average sale prices. I personally don't think prices have declined too much in many areas. Again, falls in prices from last year look big but
really volume was down last year too so may people were tring to sell at unrealistic prices. Definately a decline though overall. Mortgage companies
will bring doom down upon themselves by shrinking the market, they were the ones who gave 110% mortgages, and 6x earnings motgages. Why they ever gave
mortgages to people who couldn't save a 10% deposit has always mystified me. It's going to be tough all round for a while.
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Delinquent
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 09:19 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by eznfrank
I'm a little bemused by people who own "homes" really caring so much about the housing prices. If you own your own home worth
£250,000 or £100,000 it's your home so who cares what it's worth.
Because people are going to start loosing their jobs - and when they can no longer afford the mortgage payments, they discover that years of releasing
the equity in them means they are in negative equity - they can't stay there, they can't sell - they get repossessed. My job (investment
mortgage broker) is very much on the line if this continues. Fortunately I've always been very sensible with borrowing so prices would have to
fall about 75% before I get into negative equity - precisely because an adjustment was overdue. That's why I don't have a flat screen TV
or many toys...
As a guide to the seriousness of the market, this time last year I was writing at minimum £0.5m a month, sometimes 10's of £m.
I haven't written a single piece of business in 6 months, yet I have £20m sat on my desk right now I can't place with any lender.
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smart51
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 09:50 AM |
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House prices are far too high. A big drop would be a good thing for society as a whole. Of course there'll be winners and losers. First time
buyers, obviously. Anyone who buys a lower priced house as well, they'll have more money in their pocket and will pay less in mortgage fees.
People who bought houses whilst they were over priced need not be losers. If they stay in their house and keep paying their mortgage, they'll
carry on just fine.
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r1_pete
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 10:13 AM |
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House prices respond to market forces, for the past few years people on relatively low incomes have been able to raise large mortgages, that stems
from the de-regulation which happened in the 80's when the 2.5 x salary limit and 90% max mortgage, was abolished. So people were able to bid
more for houses and ultimately pay more, that has continued steadily with a couple of spikes. Now the lenders are worried that those risky loans will
be defaulted on, and have implemented lending limits. Thus, people are staying put or not able to pay the now inflated asking prices, house prices
may fall, but a large drop would be very bad, that would mean money had been lent, which was no longer offset by the value of what it had purchased,
so more lending limits and higher interest rates would follow to cover that potential short fall, in anticipation of more defaulting.
A small fall back of say 10 - 15 % would be managable but much more would mean more doom.
I'm one of the fortunates, House paid for, and been able to help my daughter with a 50% deposit on her 1st house last year, worst house in the
best local postcode. So no real axe to grind, but a rapid house price drop would be bad for us all if we use credit of any type.
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mcerd1
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 10:20 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Mr Whippy
in my area the prices are continuing to go up very nicely, they are already very high and will be very very high next year
same here
here's an idea, if a few us north of the border get together and sell (just before the house price drop up here) then we can buy Yorkshire 
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Mr Whippy
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 10:44 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by mcerd1
quote:
Originally posted by Mr Whippy
in my area the prices are continuing to go up very nicely, they are already very high and will be very very high next year
same here
here's an idea, if a few us north of the border get together and sell (just before the house price drop up here) then we can buy Yorkshire
Fame is when your old car is plastered all over the internet
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Delinquent
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 10:48 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Mr Whippy
quote:
Originally posted by mcerd1
quote:
Originally posted by Mr Whippy
in my area the prices are continuing to go up very nicely, they are already very high and will be very very high next year
same here
here's an idea, if a few us north of the border get together and sell (just before the house price drop up here) then we can buy Yorkshire
yeah but us southerners don't need to club together, we'd just sell the shed 
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Moorron
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 12:31 PM |
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I think its a long term drop that we arnt even seeing at the moment. But its not just one thing causing the trouble.
1, banks got greedy and have leant money to risky people thinking the boom will save them. Its now ending so many people who shouldnt have been leant
this money are now in the sg:t and therefore the banks. This itself is causing knock on effects to lending new money to new people also slowing the
boom down. its a catch 22.
2, The cost of food, energy and general living is having an effect on people and there spare cash, not every saves but now they are stopping to spend
it on goods like tv's and the like which is slowing the boom down also.
3, No first time buyers arnt entering the market and so slow house sales down and house values so this also means the people with a mortgage are
looking at loosing out.
Overall the only concern i have is IMHO i think its going to get alot worse, which will have an effect on the company i work for (lgv sales) when the
down turn starts hitting the sales of builders tippers and the like. But im not too bothered about the rest, i got lucky and bought a 55K house 7
years ago which is worth 120+ now and only have 40K to repay. so if my house drops alot in value, or the interest rates increase i am fine even if one
of use loose are jobs.
Im feel sorry for the others who arnt in a good position as i am which must be really sruggling now. Our food bills have gone up £30 a week, Gas and
electric by £300 annum and water a petrol by another huge amount. We havent had a holiday for ages, drive modest cars, no kids and dont like shopping
for the must have items so we are low energy users and spend little on ourselves. I dont know how some people are coping with it all and can see that
its going to end in tears.
ps,
i dont trust the media
dont trust all those who say 'its all fine and dandy just a blip'
Sorry about my spelling, im an engineer and only work in numbers.
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martyn_16v
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| posted on 2/7/08 at 07:03 PM |
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It's done me alright actually, and gone totally against how I thought it would. We put our two-bed maisonette up for sale a couple of months
back. At the time, the kind of 3 bed nouse we want to move to was about 10-20k more than the market value of ours. Since then prices round here have
been plummeting. I would have thought ours would drop faster than most as it's a first-time buyer type, but we've recently had an offer in
which means we're selling for more than we're buying the next place for.
Of course, I'm still utterly paranoid that the people buying ours won't get a mortgage
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Delinquent
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| posted on 3/7/08 at 08:23 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Scoobylav
I work in the construction industry and have close ties to the housebuilding market. The building industry is one of the key economic drivers in the
UK. If the construction industry starts to falter hold your breath.
Now not wanting to scare people but as mentioned earlier I could reel off a list of housebuilders who have halted all new build where they are not
"out of the ground" yet, on top of that I could also reel off a list of housebuilders who are making redundancies (these are big national
companies)
Due in great part to my comment earlier - you simply can't get the funding anymore. Or at least, it's extremely difficult and at nothing
like the cost of a year ago.
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