mangogrooveworkshop
|
posted on 3/5/04 at 08:19 AM |
|
|
Divorce prediction software (I kid U not)
This might help some car builders out there........that are having O+ trouble
Mathematical model accurately predicts which couples will divorce
There are no general laws of human relationships as there are for physics, but a leading marital researcher and group of applied mathematicians have
teamed up to create a mathematical model that predicts which couples will divorce with astonishing accuracy. The model holds promise of giving
therapists new tools for helping couples overcome patterns of interaction that can send them rushing down the road toward divorce.
Psychologist John Gottman and applied mathematicians James D. Murray and Kristin Swanson will describe how the model was developed and how it enables
Gottman to predict with 94 percent accuracy which couples will divorce after viewing just the first few moments of a conversation about an area of
martial contention. They will discuss their work today at a press briefing during the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement
of Science in Seattle.
"When Newton invented calculus it put science on a mathematical foundation and physics really took off," said Gottman who is a University
of Washington emeritus professor of psychology and director of the Relationship Research Institute. "But psychology is a field that has lagged
behind in using mathematics and there is no math in social psychology."
Murray, who is an emeritus professor of applied mathematics at the UW and Oxford University, agreed, noting that a lot of people are phobic about
mathematics and that psychology has not been exposed to models.
"What we did is extract key elements into a model so that it is interpretive and predictive," Murray said. "The mathematics we came
up with is trivial, but the model is astonishingly accurate."
The model was developed using data collected from hundreds of videotaped conversations between couples in Gottman's laboratory. Physiological
data, such as pulse rates also was collected and analyzed. The conversation reflected underlying problems the couple had and that is why the
model is so predictive, according to Murray.
"Before this model was developed divorce prediction was not accurate," Gottman added, "and we had no idea how to analyze what we
call the masters and disasters of marriage – those long-term happily married and divorced couples."
The key turned out to be quantifying the ratio of positive to negative interactions during the talk. The magic ratio is 5 to 1, and a marriage can be
in trouble when it falls below this. The mathematical model charts this interaction into what the researchers call a "Dow-Jones Industrial
Average for marital conversation."
"When the masters of marriage are talking about something important, they may be arguing, but they are also laughing and teasing and there are
signs of affection because they have made emotional connections," Gottman said. "But a lot of people don't know how to connect or
how to build a sense of humor, and this means a lot of fighting that couples engage in is a failure to make emotional connections. We wouldn't
have known this without the mathematical model.
"It gives us a way to describe a relationship and the forces that are impelling people that we never had before The math is so visual and
graphical that it allows us to visualize what happens when two people talk to each other."
It also is allowing researchers to simulate what a couple might do under different circumstances. For example, the model permits them to see what
happens if a behavior changes, say a husband allowing himself to be influenced by his wife, and how that increases the number of positive
interactions. Ultimately, this will allow therapists to do micro experiments with couples to strengthen their relationships, he believes.
http://www.gizmo.com.au/public/News/news.asp?articleid=2605
|
|
|
Peteff
|
posted on 3/5/04 at 09:11 AM |
|
|
I don't follow.
Does it mean if one of you can't do maths you will fall out more "Dow-Jones Industrial Average for marital conversation." If you
don't live in America do you follow your own countrys' index. I sat my my mate and his wife at a table and told him to ask her some simple
maths questions while I applied the Footsie and he fell out with me for playing footsie with her. I have decided maths and psychology are not my
field and have decided to try brain surgery, any volunteers?.
[Edited on 3/5/04 by Peteff]
yours, Pete
I went into the RSPCA office the other day. It was so small you could hardly swing a cat in there.
|
|
|