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Author: Subject: EU Referendum II
mark chandler

posted on 29/6/16 at 08:18 PM Reply With Quote
We are doomed, well perhaps not then
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JoelP

posted on 29/6/16 at 08:21 PM Reply With Quote
^ That's the effect of the BoE freeing up 250bn, and a recovery because article 50 doesn't appear imminent. This volatile uncertainty will continue for the foreseeable future, everytime something changes.

The real damage is done when foreign investors stop investing. Eg, Nissan isn't going to invest of we're not in the single market.





Beware! Bourettes is binfectious.

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JoelP

posted on 29/6/16 at 08:27 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by mark chandler
"If you look at the demographics, this vote was won by the old and the uneducated."

Jez, what a narrow minded view, thanks for that! Average intelligence is the same whatever age you are once grown up, older tend to have more common sense, it's called life experience!

Let's flip your comment on its head, "the election was lost by the young and the clever" does not make much sense either does it?


I have to question this. I'll find you a graph that clearly shows the correlation between age, education etc and how one voted. The notion that everyone is equally intelligent is ridiculous. Now as we all know, correlation does not equal causation. But, that's not what I said. I said, uneducated people overwhelmingly voted out. Is that because the eu has abused the uneducated, or because they just don't know what they're on about? The latter seems more likely to me.

Graph to follow...





Beware! Bourettes is binfectious.

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JoelP

posted on 29/6/16 at 08:34 PM Reply With Quote






Beware! Bourettes is binfectious.

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Sam_68

posted on 29/6/16 at 09:00 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by 02GF74
Well the ftse is almost back to where it was on thursday so we are not totally f**ked.... or maybe just too early to say.....


The FTSE 100 is biased toward multi-nationals (albeit those who trade on the London stock exchange).

The FTSE 250, which contains more UK focussed companies is still down 7% on pre-referendum position, and the is still down by 9% on the US$, and showing no significant signs of recovery, yet.

I suspect that the big watershed will be whether we go into recession at the end of the current quarter. If we do, confidence in the UK economy will go into freefall. If we don't, we might get away with only a moderate amount of pain in the short term.

As it stands - since oil is valued in US$ - expect the price of a tank of petrol to rise in proportion to the fall of the any time soon, and inflation to start to follow it soon after.

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jeffw

posted on 29/6/16 at 09:06 PM Reply With Quote
Recession

a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

You can't be in recession in one quarter.






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JoelP

posted on 29/6/16 at 09:09 PM Reply With Quote
That's a technical definition Jeff, you know as well as I do that a contraction is coming. It might not even filter through this quarter, but it's coming.





Beware! Bourettes is binfectious.

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Sam_68

posted on 29/6/16 at 09:10 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by jeffw
generally


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mark chandler

posted on 29/6/16 at 09:21 PM Reply With Quote
Dear Joel.

Are you really suggesting that the youth of today are on average more intelligent than the youth of ten, twenty, thirty or forty years ago?

You are confusing education with intelligence.

With the government in flux and that delusioned man who still believes he leads the Labour Party out front we will remain in a dip, once the elections are over and a solid government with an effective opposition emerges things will stabilise and pick up.

[Edited on 29/6/16 by mark chandler]

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RK

posted on 29/6/16 at 09:53 PM Reply With Quote
Well, in other news, my Formula Renault parts prices just went down. I do not live in the UK or Europe. Might be a good time to invest in the UK... What goes down, has to come up.

And we will welcome anybody who has a bit of education and Engish (a bit of French helps too), so if anybody is thinking of abandoning England, give our people a call in Canada. We are full of people like you and need more immigrants.

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jeffw

posted on 30/6/16 at 05:12 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by JoelP
That's a technical definition Jeff, you know as well as I do that a contraction is coming. It might not even filter through this quarter, but it's coming.


Also there is a technical definition of winning a referendum, getting more votes. Thankfully this is done via the, secret, ballot box and not by the Polls, Media, or Facebook.






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jmad

posted on 30/6/16 at 07:00 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Sam_68
As it stands - since oil is valued in US$ - expect the price of a tank of petrol to rise in proportion to the fall of the any time soon, and inflation to start to follow it soon after.


I'm not sure that the price will rise in "proportion" as a large portion of what we pay at the pump is costs ie tax and UK costs so although the price of the barrel will rise due to the exchange rate the % increase is only applicable on specific amount on what we pay.

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SJ

posted on 30/6/16 at 07:40 AM Reply With Quote
What amazes me in all this is that lots of people are suggesting that some people's votes are more important than others, many of whom spend half their time campaigning for equality.

And as for the suggestion that we should rerun the referendum because some fibs have been told, well, that's just ridiculous. We might as well say we are going to ban politicians from speaking.

Democracy is like life - it might not always be great but unless you are suicidal it is better than the alternative.

We just need to get on with things now and prove that this was the right thing to do as we'll never know if it was the wrong thing to do, unless of course someone can find the parallel universe where we voted to remain.

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Sam_68

posted on 30/6/16 at 08:27 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by SJ...we'll never know if it was the wrong thing to do


Except that we have the proof that it worked perfectly well for our economy before we f***** it up, and everybody with an ounce of business sense was saying all along that what has happened, would happen.

You can't pretend that the economic fall-out not predicted.

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SJ

posted on 30/6/16 at 08:36 AM Reply With Quote
quote:

quote: Originally posted by SJ...we'll never know if it was the wrong thing to do Except that we have the proof that it worked perfectly well for our economy before we f***** it up, and everybody with an ounce of business sense was saying all along that what has happened, would happen. You can't pretend that the economic fall-out not predicted.



Yes there is a short term shock as markets don't like change, but my point is in the medium to long term it is impossible to say which was best.

Whether it worked perfectly well before is a matter for debate. Debt clock

Stu

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Mr Whippy

posted on 30/6/16 at 11:52 AM Reply With Quote


[Edited on 29/6/16 by 02GF74]


This is just like the misleadingly scaled crisis graphs I like to scare the crap out of people with

'oh it's quite smooth, No! look let me zoom in and it's all very scary now!'

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