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Author: Subject: how bad is it? (cv19)
MikeR

posted on 18/3/20 at 01:24 PM Reply With Quote
how bad is it? (cv19)

So it feels like I'm living in a bubble. I'm hearing lots in the news about coronavirus but my school is open, no kids are off in my children's classes. My wife has been instructed to work from home but everyone in the office was fine. I'm struggling to convince my aged mother in law and agreed / at risk father to stay in as they don't see anything happening around them.

How is it around you?

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tajgreidotu

posted on 18/3/20 at 01:56 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by MikeR
So it feels like I'm living in a bubble. I'm hearing lots in the news about coronavirus but my school is open, no kids are off in my children's classes. My wife has been instructed to work from home but everyone in the office was fine. I'm struggling to convince my aged mother in law and agreed / at risk father to stay in as they don't see anything happening around them.

How is it around you?


Interesting link with raw data about COVID-19 : https://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.ht ml

I'm Spanish, living in France, near the border with Italy. I have relatives that are doctors and nurses, and I can tell you this thing is pretty bad.

The virus itself has a small impact in kids or young people (similar mortality numbers to a flu) but it's terrible for our elders (+20% of the cases).

In plus, this virus is highly contagious, with a rate 3-4 times higher than any other flu. This means lockdown is the only way to solve this issue, and needs to be at least 45 days long to have the right effects.

My recommendations are stay home, order food online (don't over buy!!), and let the time pass.
In case of feeling sick, completely isolate from your family, don't go to the hospital unless you already contacted by phone, or you feel like you don't have air. Collapsing a hospital is an easy thing this days.

Political ideologies aside, UK measures till now look like joke for a situation like this. Italy arrived late, Spain arrived late....and nobody learns.

I hope my experience with this helps someone else

Have fun!

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David Jenkins

posted on 18/3/20 at 03:01 PM Reply With Quote
A family member put this link on facebook - very informative, written by someone who knows (a virologist).

LINKY





The older I get, the better I was...

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cliftyhanger

posted on 18/3/20 at 03:25 PM Reply With Quote
I had a dry cough start yesterday morning, along with tight chest. So self isolating.
Last night I developed a high temp, and had a vile headache all night, seems to have esed a little.
So is the CV? I will never know. It could easily be the flu (or worse, manflu)

Yungest daughter started coughing Monday. She lives in a shared house in London, and is a teacher. Told to self isolate, as have all her housemates.
However, School contacted her and INSTRUCTED her to go back into school on Friday. I think she needs to be clear when she returns people need to stay away, and that she is there under duress. Idiot school leadership.....

Meanwhile my sister is going ballistic as she is having to do all the visits to my elderly parents until I recover. And keeps phoning me (6 times today so far) and ranting at me. I haven't got a clue what she wants me to do, I just feel miserable.

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overdriver

posted on 18/3/20 at 03:35 PM Reply With Quote
Being of 'three score and ten' with a compromised immune system due to chronic fatigue syndrome (M.E.), have gone into isolation - or, at least, tried to.

However, this morning we tried to order on-line for home delivery only to find that delivery slots at all supermarkets are not available until April 6th at the earliest with some sites simply not stating a date. Click-&-collect is no better. Whilst we were still going to the shops we didn't 'panic buy', just bought as normal. Consequently, although we haven't completely depleted our stocks of food etc., we certainly haven't sufficient to last until the even the earliest available date.

Doubtless, the additional drivers and extended delivery times promised by the supermarkets and other on-line delivery suppliers will make a difference eventually but in the meantime, other than imposing on friends and neighbours who, in the main, are in similar circumstances, we have no option to going out and, with extreme caution, getting provisions as normal - if there is anything 'normal' about the current scenario; I'm rather put in mind of Nevil Shute's book "What Happened To The Corbetts" which forecast everyday living conditions in the event of WWII.

At least it shouldn't interfere with fettling and blatting around with the Tiger (always done in isolation anyway) although I will have to get to grips with Pay-at-Pump. However, the Pinto's thirst guarantees plenty of practice!

Stay safe and keep smiling,

Michael.

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steve m

posted on 18/3/20 at 03:52 PM Reply With Quote
I was in the "it wont happen to me brigade" until yesterday!

But as im nearly 60, an asthmatic, on various pumps, and steroids, also, have flu jabs every year, had Pneumonia jab in 2017
had Pneumonia and pleurisy in 2012, I have been advised to "self distance" myself As the Doctors called me yesterday

So Mrs M, and I are doing so, luckily I am a zero hours worker, and so if I don't go to work, I don't get paid, and work were fine
with me not going in, and I believe two more have called in doing the same today

I do honestly believe that the current virus is very serious and I am very at risk, also my wife, being diabetic is also

Self distancing is not the same as self isolating, its on the gov website, and just means we are being extremely cautious

steve





Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at




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SJ

posted on 18/3/20 at 03:58 PM Reply With Quote
My daughter has a cough but seems otherwise fine. As a result though all the kids are off school - youngest was off anyways as her school closed for year 8 & 9.

My two eldest are doing GCSEs and A levels this year so far from ideal.

There's no way we can isolate with 3 kids int he house though. In fact if we are going to get it then it would be better if we all got it now. No idea if anyone in the house actually has CV19 though.

Supermarkets round here are pretty depleted and I'm having to work from home I do most of the time anyway so no big difference there, but I should have been in the US next week then multiple places in Europe between now and the summer. None of that will happen now.

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David Jenkins

posted on 18/3/20 at 04:05 PM Reply With Quote
In fairness to the supermarkets, there's no way they could have established a reasonable business model that allowed for situations like this. A combination of panic buying, the need for their staff to keep clear of people who may or may not have the bug, restrictions on people's mobility, possible/probable staff shortages due to sickness, and so on.

It's idiots who panic-buy that are at the root of the current situation - if everyone just bought their supplies as usual then life would be a lot easier for everyone. I saw one example when we went to Waitrose yesterday - a man struggling to control his trolley because it was overloaded with bottled water. WHY?! The stuff in the tap is perfectly good where we live. The shelves in the supermarket where the water is displayed were almost empty...

Mind you, one old codger had the right idea - he pulled up to the checkout with a trolley full of bottles of wine (at least 30) plus a few of spirits. He was struggling to move with it, but he was determined.

As for self-distancing, we are fortunate in that we live near the coast so we can go and walk on a near-deserted beach any time the weather is decent. We'll take a few sandwiches and keep ourselves to ourselves. I'm also retired, so no need to go near other people, apart from grocery shopping - our biggest risk - but we're quite well stocked, even though we've not been buying extra stuff.





The older I get, the better I was...

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JC

posted on 18/3/20 at 04:55 PM Reply With Quote
Wife has been coughing and had temperature/headache since Saturday. She is a teaching assistant and in the preceding week a kid who had been coughing for several days coughed right in her face. So we are 5 days into our 14 days now. However, rumour network says total U.K. lockdown from Friday anyway......
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UncleFista

posted on 18/3/20 at 06:50 PM Reply With Quote
I work for a large hotel chain, we have an "emergency meeting" tomorrow at 1pm, I think we'll be closing down, the attached restaurant/pub is closing on Friday until further notice.

It's definitely getting more real than I'd hoped





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Which suddenly flips, pinning you underneath.
At night the ice-weasels come...

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adithorp

posted on 18/3/20 at 07:08 PM Reply With Quote
Came back from 2 weeks in Italy then France on Sunday. Got a sore throat Sun evening and a cough by Monday... and gone downhill from there. I've been in lockdown since getting home. It's either the worst cold I can remember or zombie apocalypse flu. Either way you don't want it.





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Mr Whippy

posted on 18/3/20 at 07:49 PM Reply With Quote
For the 7 years I've had kids I've been full of colds / coughs and any number of plagues the little germ ridden blighters bring home to share. The idea that I'd have to self isolate every time that happens is ludicrous.

Now my kids school is closing indefinitely, great now the wife will have to quit her job to look after them.

[Edited on 18/3/20 by Mr Whippy]

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SJ

posted on 18/3/20 at 08:24 PM Reply With Quote
We were also hoping the schools wouldn't close. Fortunately my wife doesn't work so no impact there but it's hard for people who have to stop work.
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jps

posted on 18/3/20 at 09:41 PM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Mr Whippy
For the 7 years I've had kids I've been full of colds / coughs and any number of plagues the little germ ridden blighters bring home to share. The idea that I'd have to self isolate every time that happens is ludicrous.

Now my kids school is closing indefinitely, great now the wife will have to quit her job to look after them.

[Edited on 18/3/20 by Mr Whippy]


Similar situation to me, although I have asthma so feeling somewhat nervous about the consequences if I do collect this virus.

I have already chosen to WAH and my wife was basically given the steer by her employer to do the same, but I think we will both start to worry about what happens when one of us has to be looking after the kids all the time.

In other news I'm hoping to spend my commute time working on my car. Every cloud....

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ReMan

posted on 19/3/20 at 12:38 AM Reply With Quote
Its bad
Got some bog roll and beer today though so I'm Ok for another week
Its the rest of them





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Slater

posted on 19/3/20 at 07:20 AM Reply With Quote
I'm away in Nigeria, due home on 31st March, but this morning made decision to try to get home earlier before all the flights shut down.

I don't want to be stuck here if it all kicks off in West Africa, I'd rather be home with family.

Nigeria have 8 cases so far, some locals think their malaria exposure stops them getting the CV, but I'm not so sure.





Why do they call Port Harcourt "The Garden City"?...... Becauase they can't spell Stramash.

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Mr Whippy

posted on 19/3/20 at 07:38 AM Reply With Quote
I liked the comment an old French guy said - "What's going on? there was less panic when war was declared!"
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steve m

posted on 19/3/20 at 07:44 AM Reply With Quote
Some good news, the Eurovision song contest has also been cancelled, now that's a great result, !

Hope my friends on here keep well, and the Sick get better soon (also my friends!!)

And as I am an asthmatic I /we are taking this very seriously

steve





Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at




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Mr Whippy

posted on 19/3/20 at 08:08 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by steve m
Some good news, the Eurovision song contest has also been cancelled, now that's a great result, !

Hope my friends on here keep well, and the Sick get better soon (also my friends!!)

And as I am an asthmatic I /we are taking this very seriously

steve


tbh I felt the same way about the football

Hopefully a vaccine will be rushed through.

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cliftyhanger

posted on 19/3/20 at 08:56 AM Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Mr Whippy

Hopefully a vaccine will be rushed through.


I don't want it rushed through, I want it to be checked that it is safe. Goodness knows what happens when medicines are rushed..
Actually we do, and the results are not good.

But I hope they get their finger out with a vaccine. I hope something to be ready around Christmas. But can the UK remain locked up/down until them? I doubt it. It is going to be a very different year. Maybe a wake up call, we have been well overdue an epidemic/pandemic.

On the plus side there is a good chance house prices will tumble, great for my kids, but their weddings are both in jeopardy. So glad they both work for "the govt", at least they should be paid.

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russbost

posted on 19/3/20 at 10:46 AM Reply With Quote
We're not going to have a vaccine for at least 18 months, probs 2 years, the "it will die out in the warm weather" seems to be bollox as they have it in Thailand & currently around 30 degrees over there I believe.

TBH, I'm far more seriously worried about the ongoing economic effects than that of the virus, I completely understand people being really worried if they have elderly relatives or damaged immune systems etc. not too worried myself as although I'm 63 & have very mild asthma, I'm generally fit & healthy & run regularly

However the economic effects are going to be felt for years to come, pubs/hotels/restaurants that close now may never reopen, what happens to all their staff? Airports, coach firms, taxi drivers, bus drivers & their operators, the list is endless & each one bumps into the next creating a domino effect - who's going to rush out & buy a new car at the moment? None of us are going to be booking holidays or travel anywhere, last 2 months of the ski season has disappeared, how many hoteliers & restaurateurs/cafe owners will that affect?

I think we're going to see millions of people with depression & thousands of suicides

I also don't quite follow what's supposed to happen after we lift travel bans & start reusing public places, the virus doesn't go away unless every case runs it's full course without infecting a single further person, what's to stop it all kicking off again & isn't there a strong possibility that if you eliminate it in the Northern hemisphere, then it may be thriving in the Southern & vice versa?

I think this is going to be a long haul .............





Furore Formula Car - the only two seater modern Formula Car lookalike. I no longer run Furore Products or Furore Cars Ltd, but would still highly recommend them for Acewell dashes, projector headlights, dominator headlights, indicators, mirrors etc, best prices in the UK! Take a look at http://www.furoreproducts.co.uk/ or find more parts on Ebay, user names furoreltd & furoreproducts, discounts available for LCB users.
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MikeR

posted on 19/3/20 at 11:16 AM Reply With Quote
So from what I can gather we're looking at a prolonged lockdown with periods of relaxation - perhaps 2 months on, 1 month off. However the issue will be that if the lockdown is working the cases will drop so people will think its over. China is interesting as they relax the lock down, i anticipate it will get ramped up again in a few weeks - this will prove my 2 months / 1 month theory.

If you want to know what to expect look at Italy - we're two weeks behind them. At the weekend we're likely to have a stricter lock down.

Imperial College has published some scary details. We need to hope once you've got it you are immune till it mutates radically giving you a few years cover. Hospitals are already struggling.

Vaccine wise we're looking at 18 months with a bit of luck, we need to ensure its safe and doesn't cause something worse than the virus. I'm hopeful as its similar to other flu's its not a major leap into the unknown so more likely to work / less likely to have dangerous side effects.

What i don't understand is how society will cope - people are out of work, where is money going to come from? what stops deperate people going on the rob or worse? People talk about how we coped "in the war", except they forget society has moved on a lot in 80 years & prior to "the war" we'd had a major conflict every 5 / 10 / 15 years to condition us.

Now i could be wrong - but if we base our thinking on the above we're ready for the shitshow and can laugh when its over in a few weeks at how stupid i am. IF you think its over in a couple of weeks...... you're potentially going to struggle and be in the desperate camp.

My aim is to try and be ahead of the curve so i'm not panic buying / panic x'ing. Except i don't know what is next. Current plan when i'm not child minding & job hunting is to fuel inject / finish the seven - i've only been at it 20 years, so i may be optomistic with this bit

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ianclark1275

posted on 19/3/20 at 11:23 AM Reply With Quote
Hello locost builders,

its been a while since last post !

anyway, ive been off work since 1st Feb following a repair to my running gear.....(foot)

should be good in next 3 weeks to go back - ive been told to rest at home until then

meanwhile on the Locost front, my dad is 74 and Type 1 DB & amaloid & smokes odd cafe cremes ;-)

they are moving house next friday and the Locost needs to move down the street about 100m (they live in washington)

he cant start it (usually starts fine - must have a virus lol) - but i cant really go and help - he cant leave it there .

im going to suggest 2nd gear and use starter if i cant get him sorted via facetime.


anyway

having seen some first hand posts from italy, it looks like they haven't been socially distancing in the early days of the outbreak...maybe a lesson there

thanks





measure twice, cut once, scrap it, start again.

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russbost

posted on 19/3/20 at 11:32 AM Reply With Quote
I don't think Italy is very representative of how things will necessarily progress here for 2 important reasons. Firstly the reason that both Italy & Iran got infected so quickly & so badly is that they have huge infrastructure ties with China on major projects & guess where one of them is - Lombardy where the major outbreak occurred, considerable no.'s of officials of China & Italy had been sitting down around tables having discussions for several weeks before the outbreak, so unsurprising they got infected.

Secondly Italy has the oldest population in Europe (tho' possibly not for much longer!), so again, death rates were going to be out of kilter with younger, healthier populations

The one month/2 month thing makes sense as to have any realistic sort of herd immunity we nearly all need to get the virus at some point, if we can protect the elderly & infirm/vulnerable during that period then there is a realistic chance of it largely dying out due to lack of transmission thro' the younger healthy population that have already had it

In the meantime anticipate thieving, panic buying & quite probably major civil unrest, perhaps rioting & some considerable disruption for the foreseeable future, nothing like a bit of human selfishness & greed to help out at times like this - expect to see some of both the best & worst of human nature





Furore Formula Car - the only two seater modern Formula Car lookalike. I no longer run Furore Products or Furore Cars Ltd, but would still highly recommend them for Acewell dashes, projector headlights, dominator headlights, indicators, mirrors etc, best prices in the UK! Take a look at http://www.furoreproducts.co.uk/ or find more parts on Ebay, user names furoreltd & furoreproducts, discounts available for LCB users.
Don't forget Stainless Steel Braided brake hoses, made to your exact requirements in any of around 16 colours. http://shop.ebay.co.uk/furoreproducts/m.html?_dmd=1&_ipg=50&_sop=12&_rdc=1

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02GF74

posted on 19/3/20 at 12:21 PM Reply With Quote
It is difficult to know if it is blown out of all proportion or not. !,000s die from flu every year yet that seems to be accepted as normal.

The last figures I saw ware 8000 deaths from 200,000 cases, that is 4% which is extremely worrying. Ofcourse those figures may be well out - the reported cases may be a lot less than actual but nevertheless, to put it in perspective, count your family, friends and work colleagues, once you have reached 25, then according to those stats, one of them will die ASSUMING THEY ALL CATCH THE VIRUS.

Obviously it is not as simple as that as the virus seems to target older people and those with health issues, Darwinism in action.

and all because some c*** in China decide he want to eat bat for dinner. WTF??? Isn't KFC not good enough?

All I can say I am glad I didn't put my savings to a trust fund (shares etc) as advised by my work's pension advisor.





Visit China. Meet the child that made your trainers.


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